Historically, caucuses have served as early indicators of which candidate might win their party’s nomination. However, earlier this week, many speculated that Twitter would be a better predictor of the Iowa caucuses than traditional polling. And they might have been right.
As we head into the New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida primaries, it will be interesting to see how sentiment analysis can compare to polling, and more importantly, how these networks ultimately impact the popularity of each candidate. Social media will certainly not replace traditional polling methodologies, but we expect it to be a key indicator, especially given the volumes of conversations occurring each minute.